Economic Potential of EU Enlargement: Projected GDP Growth and Resource Opportunities
A European Union comprising 36 states could see GDP growth of 8 to 24 percent by 2035 with significant resource advantages from candidate countries.
Brussels – An analysis from the European Parliament Study and Research Center has assessed the economic implications of potential enlargement, projecting that a European Union composed of 36 member states—comprising the current 27 members and nine candidates (Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Georgia, Kosovo, North Macedonia, Moldova, Montenegro, Serbia, and Ukraine)—could experience an increase in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) ranging from 8 percent to as much as 24 percent compared to current levels by 2035.
This projection is based on the assumption that all non-EU candidate countries will have completed their accession process by 2035, thereby expanding the EU’s collective economic influence.
The study emphasizes the concept of 'convergence,' which posits that developing economies typically achieve higher growth rates compared to their more established counterparts.
Consequently, the economic contribution of the new member states is contingent on their capacity to align with the leading economies within the bloc.
In absolute figures, successful integration of the candidate countries could potentially expand the wealth produced within the EU by $55.86 trillion, according to estimates from Brussels.
Amidst the economic potential of enlargement, the availability of critical raw materials is highlighted as a significant asset.
Several candidate countries possess substantial mineral resources that could contribute to shared economic prosperity while bolstering the EU’s green and digital transitions.
For instance, Georgia, Serbia, and Ukraine are reported to have considerable copper reserves vital for electrical wiring, renewable energy infrastructure, and telecommunications.
Additionally, these countries are also rich in lithium, essential for manufacturing rechargeable batteries, and manganese, crucial for steel production.
Bosnia and Herzegovina, along with Montenegro, is noted as a key producer of bauxite, which is integral to aluminum production.
Moreover, Ukraine’s evolving role in technological innovation, especially in the defense sector, presents further economic benefits.
The study highlights Ukraine's expertise in artificial intelligence, indicating that it ranks just behind Poland in terms of scientific publications in this field.
Notably, Kyiv hosts more artificial intelligence start-ups than major European cities such as Frankfurt.
As artificial intelligence increasingly becomes pivotal in defense strategies, the advancements and innovations emerging from Ukraine in this area have the potential to enhance European security initiatives.
This projection is based on the assumption that all non-EU candidate countries will have completed their accession process by 2035, thereby expanding the EU’s collective economic influence.
The study emphasizes the concept of 'convergence,' which posits that developing economies typically achieve higher growth rates compared to their more established counterparts.
Consequently, the economic contribution of the new member states is contingent on their capacity to align with the leading economies within the bloc.
In absolute figures, successful integration of the candidate countries could potentially expand the wealth produced within the EU by $55.86 trillion, according to estimates from Brussels.
Amidst the economic potential of enlargement, the availability of critical raw materials is highlighted as a significant asset.
Several candidate countries possess substantial mineral resources that could contribute to shared economic prosperity while bolstering the EU’s green and digital transitions.
For instance, Georgia, Serbia, and Ukraine are reported to have considerable copper reserves vital for electrical wiring, renewable energy infrastructure, and telecommunications.
Additionally, these countries are also rich in lithium, essential for manufacturing rechargeable batteries, and manganese, crucial for steel production.
Bosnia and Herzegovina, along with Montenegro, is noted as a key producer of bauxite, which is integral to aluminum production.
Moreover, Ukraine’s evolving role in technological innovation, especially in the defense sector, presents further economic benefits.
The study highlights Ukraine's expertise in artificial intelligence, indicating that it ranks just behind Poland in terms of scientific publications in this field.
Notably, Kyiv hosts more artificial intelligence start-ups than major European cities such as Frankfurt.
As artificial intelligence increasingly becomes pivotal in defense strategies, the advancements and innovations emerging from Ukraine in this area have the potential to enhance European security initiatives.
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