SOFIA - Bulgaria's aspiration to join the eurozone on January 1, 2026, faces significant challenges, as the National Statistical Institute reports an average annual inflation rate of 2.6%.

This figure exceeds the Maastricht convergence criterion, which stipulates that Bulgaria's inflation should not surpass the average inflation rate of the three best-performing EU member states by more than 1.5%.

Currently, the average inflation rate of these three countries stands at 1.07%, setting Bulgaria's maximum allowable threshold at 2.57%, leaving it 0.03% above the limit.

Boyko Borissov, leader of the GERB party (European People's Party), has called for the head of the National Statistical Institute to appear before parliament to clarify the calculations behind the inflation data.

"When they give us the data, we will summon them to parliament to explain what parameters they detect, to explain to us and to convince us of the truth of these statistics.

I trust the institutions," said Borissov.

The Bulgarian government is awaiting additional data from Eurostat, expected on February 24, which will provide insight into inflation trends throughout the eurozone.

These figures are preliminary and may be subject to revisions as more comprehensive data, including consumer basket statistics, becomes available in March.

A critical deadline looms at the end of February, when the Sofia government must decide whether to submit a request for an extraordinary convergence report to assess the country’s readiness to adopt the euro.

Both the European Commission and the European Central Bank will evaluate Bulgaria's inflation, along with budget deficit estimations, in the context of potential eurozone membership.

Borissov has asserted that securing eurozone membership remains a strategic priority for the Bulgarian government, pledging to introduce a state budget with a deficit not exceeding 3% of GDP in parliament.

However, the country’s inflation issues appear to be ongoing, with January's inflation reported at 2%, indicating a rise from December’s figures.

This trend is reflected in the harmonized annual inflation rate, crucial for eurozone accession considerations.

Factors contributing to the January inflation hike include rising costs in water and electricity, the reinstatement of a 20% VAT on restaurants, and adjustments to VAT on bread.

Additionally, mobile operators have taken unilateral actions to revise existing contracts, further complicating the economic landscape.

In the political sphere, the pro-Russian party Vazrazhdane has expressed skepticism regarding the accuracy of data from the National Statistical Institute, alleging without evidence that the institute is manipulating statistics to facilitate Bulgaria's entry into the eurozone.

In September 2024, a Eurostat mission confirmed that the National Statistical Institute calculates inflation in compliance with EU standards, with Bulgarian data routinely undergoing validation alongside other member states’ statistics.