Brussels – The consumption of illegal cigarettes in Europe is on the rise, with projections indicating that more than 52 billion illegal cigarettes will be smoked in 2024, accounting for approximately 10% of total cigarette consumption across the continent, which represents a slight increase of 0.2% compared to 2023. The data originates from a report compiled by a consulting agency, focusing on trends across 38 markets in Europe, including the 27 EU member states, the six Western Balkan countries, Moldova, Norway, the UK, Switzerland, and Ukraine.

The report reveals that the volume of illegal cigarette consumption in 2023 stood at 52.2 billion units in the surveyed countries, translating to one illegal cigarette for every ten consumed.

This figure encompasses counterfeit cigarettes, smuggled cigarettes, and illicit whites—legally produced products that are illicitly distributed in markets where legal sales are restricted.

Within the EU, which represents 27 of those markets, the consumption of illicit cigarettes surged by 10.8%, reaching a record total of 38.9 billion units.

This figure constitutes approximately 9.2% of total cigarette consumption, marking the highest level since 2015.

France continues to represent the largest illegal cigarette market in Europe, with an estimated 18.7 billion cigarettes smoked illegally in 2024. This figure reflects that more than one in every three cigarettes lit in France (37.6%) was sold through illegal channels, highlighting the significant issue of counterfeiting with 7.8 billion of the cigarettes being counterfeit products.

The Netherlands saw the most considerable increase in illicit consumption relative to total consumption, with a reported 10.2% increase, bringing the total to 17.9%.

In contrast, illegal cigarette consumption has seen notable decreases in several EU countries, including Bulgaria, Greece, and Portugal, as well as in non-EU countries such as Ukraine.

Kyiv recorded a significant 29% decrease in smuggling and counterfeiting volumes, while Athens experienced a 6.2% year-on-year reduction.

In Italy, illegal cigarette rates have remained nearly unchanged, with approximately 1.1 billion of the 59.8 billion cigarettes smoked being illegal, representing 1.8% of consumption, a minute increase of 0.02% from the previous year.

The illegal cigarette market in Italy is estimated to result in approximately €226 million in uncollected taxes.

The ramifications of the black market for cigarettes extend across multiple sectors, impacting public health, security, and economic stability.

In 2024, European governments faced nearly €15 billion in lost tax revenue, with around €9 billion of that amount attributed to France alone.

When considering all 38 countries analyzed in the report, the tax losses exceeded €19 billion.

Experts indicate that many current anti-smoking policies may be ineffective or counterproductive, particularly when taxation increases sharply.

Instead of deterring consumption, these policies often push consumers toward lower-priced black-market products, with higher tobacco prices in countries like France and the Netherlands driving illicit trade.

In response to the difficulties posed by the illicit tobacco market, recommendations include implementing evidence-based regulatory measures with balanced taxation, fostering public-private cooperation, and enhancing support for regional and national law enforcement efforts to combat the consolidation of criminal organizations within countries where cigarette prices are elevated.